Investing Beyond Market Cycles

Markets move in cycles. This is not a forecast. It is an observation about the nature of credit, sentiment, and price. The question for an owner is not whether a cycle will turn, but whether the portfolio is built to endure the turn.

We underwrite each investment as though the next downturn has already begun. We assume income will soften, financing will tighten, and buyers will become scarce. If an asset still makes sense under those conditions, it is worth owning.

The time to prepare for a difficult market is before anyone believes one is coming.

This approach costs something in favourable years. We pass on opportunities that others accept, and we carry less leverage than we could. In return, we are rarely forced to sell, and we are often able to buy when others cannot.

A cycle rewards those who remain solvent and patient through it. Our aim is to be among them each time, and to treat the cycle as a condition of ownership rather than a surprise.